The Common Agricultural Policy and the Next EU Budget. Bertelsmann Stiftung Reflection Paper No.2: Preparing for the Multiannual Financial Framework after 2020. Paper prepared for Expert Workshop “CAP and the next MFF” Berlin, Federal Foreign Office, 30 March 2017

The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) was set up in a time when (a) the memory about post-war food shortage was fresh, (b) Europe was a large net importer of agricultural products, (c) agricultural production was still highly labour-intensive, (d) food was a major item in a typical consumer basket and (e) significant shares of the work-force received their major income from the agricultural sector. The CAP objectives enshrined in Art. 39 TFEU (see box) clearly reflect this historical situation. When the Treaty of Rome was signed in 1957, it was understand-able that the standard of living of the agricultural workforce was a major issue and that “reasonable prices” for consumers were regarded as a matter of social stability

Selection for cognitive control: a functional magnetic resonance imaging study on the selection of task-relevant information

The complex environment we live in makes it necessary to distinguish relevant from irrelevant information constantly and reliably. The aim of the present study was to investigate the neural substrate underlying the selection of task-relevant information. We devised a new paradigm in which participants had to switch between two different tasks that were instructed by task cues. The task cues had a relevant and an irrelevant cue dimension. In congruent trials, both cue dimensions indicated the same task; in incongruent trials, they indicated different tasks; and in neutral trials, only the relevant dimension indicated a task. By comparing trials in which both cue dimensions were informative (congruent and incongruent trials) with trials in which only the relevant dimension was informative (neutral trials), we were able to show that the lateral prefrontal cortex and a region in the intraparietal sulcus are involved in the selection of task-relevant information. Furthermore, the present paradigm allows the influence of the selected task and stimulus dimension to be investigated. No significant influence was found in the prefrontal cortex, indicating that this region serves a very abstract role in the selection of task-relevant information

Meta Response Surface Design for General and Partial Equilibrium Models

Due to the complexity of general and partial equilibrium models, conventional sensitivity analysis, qualitative reviews or literature-based meta-analyses do not allow for detailed assessments of the role of individual parameters and policy shocks across different models. Therefore, the partial equilibrium model “GSIM” and a single country CGE are employed to generate synthetic scenarios based on randomly specified combinations of base data, elasticities and tariff changes selected from previously specified, plausible ranges. The synthetic meta-data has the advantage that the values of explanatory variables are measured exactly. This makes it possible to explore complex issues of functional form and interaction between variables in the estimation of the response surface of each model as well as for a joint response surface of both models. The results indicate that firstand second-order polynomials provide sufficient approximations of the model responses, and especially for the CGE model, interaction terms of elasticities with policy variables play an important role. Furthermore, simultaneous estimation of a response surface of scenarios from both models proves to be feasible and enables quantitative comparisons of different model output, e.g. welfare measures.General Equilibrium, Partial Equilibrium, Response Surface Design, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

Semiparametric Evidence on the Nature of Price Transmission in Tanzanian Maize Markets

Maize is a major staple food in Sub-Saharan Africa. Monthly maize prices in Tanzania are analyzed since the country is an important maize producer and exporter in East Africa. We analyze price transmission between the five most important urban regions of Tanzania between 2000 and 2008 which correspond to major maize production or consumption areas. We propose a novel method for the analysis. The semiparametric vector error-correction model allows the partial impact of the past deviations from price equilibria on current price changes to be potentially nonlinear. The nonparametric estimates of these partial influences suggest that they can be adequately modeled by linear functions.cointegration, maize, nonlinear time series model, price transmission, semiparametric model, Tanzania., Crop Production/Industries, Marketing, C32, Q11, Q13,

International Synchronisation of the Pork Cycle

International Relations/Trade, Livestock Production/Industries,

The Welfare Effects of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in German Pork Production

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are an externality of the pork production process. To respond to climate change concerns and reduce GHG emissions, internalizing this external effect using a market-based economic instrument would be economically efficient. We calculate the welfare effects of GHG emissions using a partial equilibrium model of the German pork market. Sensitivity analysis is used to investigate the impacts of emission prices and emission rates on the welfare effects of reducing GHG emissions. Potential overall welfare gains amount to roughly € 360,000 in the base setting and increase to roughly € 3 million when emission prices are tripled. This sensitivity highlights the need for more dependable estimates of key parameters such as emission prices and emission rates. However, even the largest estimates of these welfare gains are relatively small. By contrast, the distributional effects of internalizing GHG externalities in pork production for producers, consumers and the state are large in all scenarios. The large redistribution effects that follow from even a small pork price increase as a result of internalizing GHG emissions indicate that attempts to tie German pork production into such policies would be highly controversial but may create incentives to invest in technologies which mitigate GHG emissions.Welfare effects, greenhouse gas emissions, pork production, partial equilibrium model, Environmental Economics and Policy, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, H23, Q18, Q54,